Ten years after the UK entered into a hurried referendum that split the nation and triggered turmoil, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate
The team have analysed the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly polarised community where those defeated are resistant to losing and the victorious side don't know precisely what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue that moment is imminent, and a group named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there might be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unity has hidden the lack of serious debate, noted McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or activists seek to involve themselves with even the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, neither author endorses unity or the current situation. Both authors two pieces that strive for neutrality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the case against, marshalling economic and social statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments range over national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and provoke conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said the writer. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they support unification but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to recognise unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government should determine what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his era is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified perspectives, he said. "One side will prevail in this matter and somebody will in the end be defeated but both parties has has important lessons to learn from the other's viewpoints."
Appeal for Wider Discussion
Westminster needed to participate in the debate, urged O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."
